Political Analysis of the Global Info Analytics September 2025 National Tracking Poll

The September 2025 Global Info Analytics poll delivers another insight into the emerging contours of Ghana’s 2028 presidential race for both the NPP and the NDC. The poll reinforces three central dynamics:

1. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia remains the strongest figure within the NPP, but Kennedy Agyapong’s gradual consolidation of support, particularly among general voters keeps the field competitive.

2. The NDC contest is fragmented, with Haruna Iddrisu establishing a lead but still facing a serious challenge from Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Cassiel Ato Forson, depending on how the permutations play out.

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3. Head-to-head matchups for 2028 show the NDC holding a structural advantage, with nearly all of its potential candidates beating either Bawumia or Agyapong in direct matchups, though margins vary by personality and region.

NPP : Bawumia Leads, But with Warning Signs

At first glance, the numbers seem clear. Among NPP-aligned voters, Bawumia towers at 57%, while Agyapong trails at 29%. It’s a gap wide enough to suggest inevitability. But politics, especially in Ghana’s ruling party, is rarely about surface readings.

The gap narrows within the party’s delegates, where Bawumia stands at 47% and Agyapong 17%, with a massive 27% still undecided.

• This undecided bloc is the wildcard: if it tilts toward Agyapong, the race could tighten considerably.

• Bawumia, however, maintains a decisive lead in swing regions (57% to Agyapong’s 32%), reinforcing his broader national appeal.

• Yet, the poll indicates erosion in Bawumia’s support among delegates compared to August’s poll (down 5 points), while undecided numbers climb. This suggests a softening base that Ken Agyapong could exploit.

NDC: Haruna Iddrisu Emerges, Forson as Dark Horse

In politics, numbers can deceive. Johnson Asiedu Nketia knows this well. For decades, the NDC’s chairman has embodied grassroots politics, the voice of the party’s footsoldiers. Yet in the September 2025 Global InfoAnalytics poll, he finds himself squeezed between the Northern star power of Haruna Iddrisu and the technocratic polish of Cassiel Ato Forson.

Haruna Iddrisu leads the NDC race with 30%, followed by Asiedu Nketia (24%) and Ato Forson (18%). The dynamics shift under different scenarios, where:

• Without Forson, Haruna surges to 45%, with Nketia at 37%.

• Without Haruna, the race is virtually tied between Nketia (40%) and Forson (38%).

This reveals two realities:

1. Haruna commands strong grassroots appeal, especially in the Northern Bloc (59%), but his dominance is not insurmountable.

2. Forson, while trailing in the main field, however has the best head-to-head numbers against Bawumia in a general election – a signal that some voters may view him as a stronger general-election candidate than Haruna or Nketia.

2028 General Election Outlook: NDC Advantage

The general election matchups are sobering for the NPP:

• Haruna Iddrisu vs Bawumia: Haruna 55%, Bawumia 42%.

• Forson vs Bawumia: Forson 53%, Bawumia 44%.

• Asiedu Nketia vs Bawumia: Nketia 50%, Bawumia 45%.

• Julius Debrah vs Bawumia: Debrah 46%, Bawumia 50%.

Notably, only Julius Debrah loses to Bawumia, putting him as the weakest NDC option. Haruna and Forson appear to be the NDC’s strongest bets, particularly in swing regions where their margins are widest.

Against Kennedy Agyapong, the NDC’s numbers are even more decisive – Haruna (55–41), Forson (54–42), Nketia (51–44). Agyapong’s relative outsider appeal may play well with certain demographics, but the swing regions overwhelmingly favor NDC candidates.

The Youth Factor

A striking 64% of respondents believe Ghana should be led by young leaders, with support cutting across regions and age groups. This generational sentiment could shape both parties’ internal calculations.

• For the NDC, Forson (mid-40s) embodies this generational demand more than Haruna (55) or Nketia (68).

• For the NPP, Bawumia (61) and Agyapong (65) risk appearing out of step with the growing youth preference, even though Bawumia’s technocratic profile still resonates.

Takeaways

1. NPP’s challenge: Bawumia remains their best bet, but his slipping hold over delegates and stagnant general-election numbers suggest vulnerability. Agyapong has room to grow if he consolidates undecided delegates, but in national matchups, he performs worse than Bawumia.

2. NDC’s advantage: They hold the upper hand in nearly every 2028 scenario. However, their choice of flagbearer matters. Haruna brings popularity but risks being seen as polarizing; Forson brings electability but lacks grassroots dominance.

3. Swing regions decide 2028: Whether it is Haruna or Forson, the NDC currently enjoys commanding leads in Greater Accra, Central, and Western – the very blocs that have historically decided elections.

The September 2025 survey was conducted nationwide by Global InfoAnalytics using a random probability sampling approach with an overall sample size of 9,497. Respondents surveyed through telephone calls were drawn from all 16 regions of Ghana while face to face polls were conducted in 83 constituencies. A combination of telephone interviews (computer-assisted telephone interviewing, CATI) and face-to-face interviews in areas with limited phone penetration were employed.