A technical report by economists from the University of Ghana has found that the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) delivered substantial macroeconomic benefits in 2025, largely through reduced gold smuggling and increased foreign exchange inflows into the formal economy.
The report, dated 4 January 2026 and prepared for GoldBod, was authored by Prof. Festus Ebo Turkson and Peter Junior Dotse of the University of Ghana’s Department of Economics, and Prof. Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako of the University of Ghana Business School. It evaluates GoldBod’s impact using administrative data, trade statistics, and conservative valuation assumptions.
According to the study, recorded artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) gold exports increased from 63.6 metric tons in 2024 to 103.0 metric tons in 2025, an increase of 39.4 tons. The authors conclude that the increase is most plausibly explained by the formalisation of gold that was previously smuggled or exported through informal channels, rather than by a sudden rise in production.
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Using a conservative gold price of US$3,000 per ounce, the report estimates that the additional 39.4 tons correspond to about US$3.8 billion in foreign exchange entering Ghana’s formal financial system in 2025.
The report compares this benefit with the Bank of Ghana’s reported gold trading loss of about US$214 million, as cited by the International Monetary Fund. On this basis, the authors estimate a benefit-to-cost ratio of roughly 18 to 1. They further note that formalising just 2.2 tons of gold would have been sufficient to offset the reported loss.
Beyond smuggling reduction, the report highlights the financing advantages of GoldBod-linked foreign exchange inflows. ASM gold exports facilitated through GoldBod amounted to about US$10.8 billion in 2025. The authors argue that if Ghana had instead borrowed externally to raise a similar amount of foreign exchange, annual interest costs would have ranged between US$756 million and US$1.08 billion, assuming borrowing rates of 7 to 10 percent.
Even when focusing only on the portion of inflows attributed to reduced smuggling, the report estimates avoided annual interest costs of between US$266 million and US$380 million. The authors stress that these savings recur annually, rather than representing a one-off gain.
The report also links GoldBod-related inflows to broader macroeconomic outcomes observed in 2025. These include an increase in gross international reserves to about US$11–12 billion, an improvement in import cover, and a marked appreciation of the Ghana cedi. The cedi strengthened from GH¢ 14.70 per US dollar at the end of 2024 to GH¢ 10.45 at the end of 2025, contrary to IMF-supported budget projections that had assumed further depreciation.
According to the analysis, the stronger exchange rate reduced the domestic currency cost of external debt service by an estimated GH¢ 6.2 billion in 2025, and lowered the cedi value of Ghana’s import bill by about GH¢ 50.6 billion over the same period. The report also associates exchange rate stabilisation with lower inflation through reduced exchange-rate pass-through.
Addressing concerns over the Bank of Ghana’s reported trading losses, the authors argue that these figures are widely misunderstood. They state that most of the losses reflect accounting translation effects rather than actual cash losses. Gold is purchased at near-retail exchange rates to discourage smuggling, while foreign exchange inflows must be recorded at the lower interbank rate, creating an apparent loss on paper.
The report estimates the true economic cost of the gold pricing strategy, including fees, purity losses, and offtake discounts, at about 2.5 percent of gold value, far below the headline loss figures.
The authors conclude that GoldBod should not be assessed as a profit-making trading entity, but as a macroeconomic stabilisation and formalisation tool. They recommend sustaining price competitiveness to deter smuggling, improving transparency in reporting, gradually reducing policy costs as market conditions normalise, and strengthening governance as GoldBod assumes greater trading responsibility.
Find the full report here: