On the eve of the 2026 NPP presidential primaries, the flood of polling data has created as much debate as clarity. Several major polls, released by different organisations and using different methods, point in different directions.
Some place Kennedy Ohene Agyapong clearly ahead. Others give Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia a commanding lead. A few suggest a tight contest still in motion. Taken separately, each poll claims authority. Taken together, they tell a more complex story about the party, its delegates, and the moment it finds itself in.
At first glance, the disagreement among the polls can seem confusing or even suspicious. But the variation is not unusual in internal party elections, especially where the electorate is relatively small, diverse, and politically strategic.
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One thing is certain: NPP delegates are not passive voters. They are politically aware actors, many of whom balance personal conviction, regional interest, party loyalty, and future positioning. Polls that capture different slices of this group are always bound to produce different results.
Another clear pattern across the data is that race is not simply about popularity. It is about which segments of the party are being measured. For instance, delegate-focused polls that emphasise grassroots organisers and newer party actors tend to show stronger support for Agyapong.
These results somewhat suggest that some delegates are frustrated with the status quo and desire a candidate who projects toughness, independence, and a break from the party’s recent governing image.
On the other hand, polls that capture more established party structures consistently show Bawumia in front. This reflects his deep institutional support, his long visibility within the party, and his appeal to delegates who value continuity, experience in government, and perceived electability in a national contest. For these voters, the primary is less a protest and more a calculation about 2028.
Another important takeaway from the polling is that momentum and timing matter. Earlier surveys tended to favour Bawumia more comfortably. Later delegate-based polls showed Agyapong closing the gap or even leading. This shift has shaped the narrative of a tightening race and has likely influenced how both camps have campaigned in the final stretch.
Whether that momentum translates into votes, however, is something polls can only guess at. In internal elections, late persuasion, quiet alliances, and last-minute decisions often matter more than public sentiment.
The polls also highlight internal tensions within the NPP. Regional differences, generational divides, and differing views on the party’s future direction all appear beneath the surface of the numbers.
Some delegates seem motivated by the need to reset the party’s image after time in government. Others are focused on stability and avoiding internal shocks. The polls do not resolve this tension. They reveal it.
What all the data ultimately suggests is not certainty, but competitiveness. Despite claims from both sides, no single poll settles the question of who will win. Instead, they collectively point to a party that is actively debating itself. That, in many ways, is the most important signal.
Into this uncertainty have stepped prophetic voices. Over recent weeks, several religious leaders have publicly claimed divine insight into the outcome of the primaries. Some have declared that power will shift unexpectedly. Others have named specific candidates as chosen or favoured. A few have warned of surprise outcomes that will defy polling and elite expectations.
For many observers, these revelations sit outside the realm of political analysis. But within the NPP base, they matter. Ghanaian politics does not exist in a vacuum separate from faith. For some delegates, prophetic messages reinforce existing convictions.
For others, they introduce doubt, caution, or hope that transcends political calculation. In tightly contested internal elections, perception alone can influence behaviour.
Interestingly, the prophetic declarations mirror the polls in one key way: they do not agree. Just as surveys point in different directions, so do the prophecies. This has deepened the sense that the contest is a spiritually and politically contested terrain, where no outcome is settled until the final vote is cast.
As delegates go to vote, the polls will fade quickly into the background. By tomorrow, they will be judged not by how confident they sounded, but by how well they captured the instincts of a small but powerful electorate.
Until then, the only honest conclusion the data allows is this: the race is open, and the party is divided in meaningful ways, but the decision that matters will be made not by surveys, but by delegates behind closed doors – so whether polls are for strippers or not, tomorrow will ultimately reveal.